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Context of 'November 2001: Intelligence Report Assesses that Tubes Imported by Iraq Could be Used for Gas Centrifuge Rotors'

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A US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) document reports that since the mid-1970s, Iraq has been “actively acquiring” chemical weapons. [Phythian, 1997]

Entity Tags: Defense Intelligence Agency

Timeline Tags: US-Iraq 1980s

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) publishes an internal background paper explaining the debate within the US intelligence community over Iraq’s intended use for the aluminum tubes it attempted to import from China (see July 2001). The paper describes the assessments of both the CIA and the Department of Energy, the latter of which does not believe the tubes are suitable for use as rotors in a gas centrifuge (see August 17, 2001). The DIA says its “analysts found the CIA WINPAC presentation to be very compelling.” [US Congress, 7/7/2004]

Entity Tags: Central Intelligence Agency, US Department of Energy, Defense Intelligence Agency

Timeline Tags: Events Leading to Iraq Invasion

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) issues a report on “Iraq’s Reemerging Nuclear Weapon Program,” noting that “[a]lternative uses” for the aluminum tubes ordered by Iraq are “possible,” but that such alternatives are “less likely because the specifications [of the tubes] are consistent with late 1980s Iraqi gas centrifuge rotor designs.” [The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (aka 'Robb-Silberman Commission'), 3/31/2005]

Entity Tags: Defense Intelligence Agency, US Department of Energy

Timeline Tags: Events Leading to Iraq Invasion

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) publishes a Military Intelligence Digest supplement, titled “Iraq: Procuring Possible Nuclear-Related Gas Centrifuge Equipment,” concluding that “although alternative uses for the tubes are possible, such as rocket motor cases or rocket launch tubes, the specifications are consistent with earlier Iraqi gas centrifuge rotor designs.” The report was prepared by a DIA Iraq nuclear analyst and an analyst from the US Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center, the unit responsible for conventional ground weapons systems assessments. [US Congress, 7/7/2004]

Entity Tags: National Ground Intelligence Center, Defense Intelligence Agency

Timeline Tags: Events Leading to Iraq Invasion

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) issues an assessment on Iraq’s “Reemerging Nuclear Weapons Program,” which concludes that the aluminum tubes Iraq attempted to import from China (see July 2001) could be used in an Iraqi gas centrifuge enrichment program. It notes that “[a]lternative uses for the tubes, such as rocket motor cases or launch tubes, are possible. However, this is less likely because the specifications are consistent with late-1980s Iraqi gas centrifuge rotor designs.” [US Congress, 7/7/2004]

Entity Tags: Defense Intelligence Agency

Timeline Tags: Events Leading to Iraq Invasion

The CIA distributes a classified report on the aluminum tubes (see July 2001) concluding that Iraq probably intended to use the tubes as rotors in gas centrifuges. The report, titled “Iraq ‘s Hunt for Aluminum Tubes: Evidence of a Renewed Uranium Enrichment Program,” is the most detailed to date and will serve as the basis for the draft text of the majority position on the aluminum tubes in the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq (see October 1, 2002). It summarizes Iraq’s “efforts to hide the tube procurement attempts, the materials, high cost, tight tolerances, dimensions and the anodized coating of the tubes, and CIA’s assessment that the tubes ‘matched’ known centrifuge rotor dimensions,” according to a later Senate Intelligence report The CIA assessment also states that the US Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) does not believe it is likely that the tubes were intended for a conventional rocket program. [US Congress, 7/7/2004; New York Times, 10/3/2004] The two analysts responsible for the NGIC opinion, George Norris and Robert Campos, will receive job performance awards in 2002, 2003, and 2004 even though, according to a later investigation headed by former Senator Charles Robb (D-Va.) and Judge Laurence H. Silberman, their analysis “was clearly mistaken and should have been recognized as such at the time.” [The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (aka 'Robb-Silberman Commission'), 3/31/2005; Washington Post, 5/28/2005] The CIA report also acknowledges that “some in the intelligence community” have argued that the tubes were likely intended to be used in the production of conventional rockets, not gas centrifuges. [New York Times, 10/3/2004]

Entity Tags: Central Intelligence Agency, National Ground Intelligence Center

Timeline Tags: Events Leading to Iraq Invasion

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