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Context of '4:00 pm August 28, 2005: NHC Advisory: Hurricane Potentially Catastrophic; Levee Overtopping Possible'

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina is now a “potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane” and is headed for the Northern Gulf Coast. Although the NHC cannot predict the exact strength at landfall, Katrina is “expected to be a devastating Category 4 or 5 hurricane at landfall.” The NHC forecasts coastal storm surge flooding 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels, with higher surges of up to 25 feet, as well as large and dangerous battering waves near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 12 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 160 mph, with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 908 mb [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina, already a potentially catastrophic hurricane headed for the Northern Gulf Coast, continues to gain strength. Katrina is getting stronger-and bigger. The NHC notes that Katrina is now as strong as Hurricane Camille was in 1969, only larger, and warns that storm surge flooding will be 18-22 feet above normal, with surges to 28 feet in some areas. Although hurricanes rarely sustain these extreme winds for long, the NHC reports no obvious large-scale effects that could cause Katrina to weaken substantially. Katrina’s path likely will move northwest, then north-northwest over the next 24 hours. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 225 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 12 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 175 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 907 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane winds now extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend to 205 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 12 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 33 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 35 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Camille, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory leads by warning, “Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina headed for the Northern Gulf Coast.” Conditions are already deteriorating along portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast, and they will continue to deteriorate throughout the evening. Katrina, still a Category 5 hurricane, is likely to make landfall with Category 4 or 5 intensity. The NHC reiterates that storm surge flooding will be 18-22 feet above normal, with increased surge to 28 feet in some areas, and warns that “some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped.” Katrina’s minimum central pressure is now the fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: Northwest at near 13 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 175 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 902 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane winds extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend outward for 230 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 5 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 38 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 47 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC)‘s midnight advisory leads with: “Potentially catastrophic [Category 5] Hurricane Katrina continues to approach the Northern Gulf Coast…sustained hurricane-force winds nearing the Southeastern Louisiana coast.” Already, a wind gust to 98 mph has been reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana. Katrina remains quite large, and will likely cause storm surge flooding of 18-22 feet above normal, with increased surge to 28 feet in some areas, and may overtop New Orleans’ levees. Some changes to Katrina’s structure indicates that there could be some weakening, although the NHC reiterates that Katrina likely will still be a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 90 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River; 150 miles south-southeast of New Orleans
bullet Direction and Speed: North-northwest at near 10 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 160 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 908 mb
bullet Size: hurricane winds now extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Katrina is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 105 mph. Katrina remains huge, with hurricane force winds extending 125 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles. Katrina’s center is now 40 miles south-southwest of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Minimum central pressure has increased to 940 MB. [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Katrina is now a still-dangerous Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of nearly 95 mph. The hurricane remains huge, with hurricane force winds extending 125 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles. Katrina’s center is now 20 miles south-southwest of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

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