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Context of '2:00 am August 28, 2005: NHC Advisory: Potentially catastrophic Katrina bears down on Northern Gulf Coast'

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) repeats its hurricane warning for the Southeast Florida Coast from Vero Beach to Florida City. The tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east-central Florida coast. The NHC expects Katrina to strengthen into a hurricane before her center reaches Florida coast. Models are beginning to “agree” that Katrina will turn northward, although “there is still a notable spread.” The NHC predicts that Katrina will become a hurricane before landfall, will weaken while crossing the Florida peninsula, and then will re-intensify over the Golf of Mexico. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 26.2 N, 78.7 W
bullet Direction and Speed: West at near 8 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 1000 mb
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet West Palm Beach, FL: 64 percent
bullet Panama City, FL: 11 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 5 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 4 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The eye of Hurricane Katrina, now a Category 1 hurricane, is moving southwest across Miami-Dade County, and expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico Friday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Katrina to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf. Two models indicate Katrina will become a major hurricane. Indications are that Katrina will move westward before being forced northerly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. “All indications are that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days.” Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: Miami-Dade County, Florida
bullet Direction and Speed: Southwest at near 8 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 75 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 961 mb
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 16 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 9 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 7 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Katrina has regained hurricane strength upon leaving Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico. NHC expects Katrina to continue, with slight increase in speed, over next 24 hours. Models generally agree that Katrina will migrate westward, gradually turning northwest. The “consensus” of models has shifted westward. Indications are now stronger that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next couple of days. The official forecast indicates Katrina winds will strengthen to 100 mph, although two models forecast a major hurricane. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 25.3 N, 81.5W
bullet Direction and Speed: Due west at near 5 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 987 mb
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 17 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 11 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 8 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

Katrina gains strength as it moves westward away from Florida, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC expects Katrina to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane by Saturday. Most of the models indicate that Katrina’s path will flatten out in more westward direction over next 12 hours. Two models indicate “large jump” west over Louisiana, while most other models indicate Katrina will move inland over the Northeast Gulf Coast. The NHC expects Katrina to strengthen into a major hurricane. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 25.1 N, 82.2 W
bullet Direction and Speed: West at near 7 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 981 mb
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 18 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 12 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 10 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a special advisory that Katrina, now a Category 2 hurricane, is rapidly gaining strength as it moves westward. Forecasters expect Katrina to strengthen during the next 24 hours and may become a Category 3 hurricane. Given the drop in pressure, the NHC predicts that Katrina will rapidly strengthen to near Category 4 hurricane within 72 hours. (In fact, Katrina will become a Category 4 hurricane in 61 hours (see 1:00 am August 28, 2005), and will make landfall in only 67 hours .) Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 25.1 N, 82.2 W
bullet Direction and Speed: West near 7 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 100 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 971 mb
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 18 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 13 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 11 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Katrina, now a Category 2 hurricane, continues to move west-southwest away from Florida, and is expected to gradually turn west on Saturday. Models have now shifted significantly westward. The NHC states that the “projected landfall is still about 72 hours away.” (In fact, Katrina will make landfall in only 55 hours.) The NHC expects that Katrina will strengthen over the next 24 hours, becoming a Category 3—or major—hurricane later today, and may be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 24.8 N, 82.9 W (approximately 70 miles west-northwest of Key West, Florida)
bullet Direction and Speed: West-southwest at near 8 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 100 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 965 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from the center up to 25 miles; and tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 17 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 16 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 15 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Katrina continues to move west-southwest, but will likely turn west, then west-northwest on Saturday. Katrina is following the typical pattern observed in intense hurricanes, and likely will become a Category 4 hurricane. Indeed, some models indicate it could become a Category 5 hurricane. NHC warns, “most of the reliable numerical model tracks are now clustered between the eastern coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi.” The official forecast indicates that Katrina will move over the north central Gulf of Mexico in approximately 48 hours. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 24.6 N, 83.6 W
bullet Direction and Speed: West-southwest at 8 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 965 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from the center up to 25 miles; and tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 15 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 18 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 17 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center, warns the Times-Picayune that Hurricane Katrina poses an imminent danger to New Orleans: “The guidance we get and common sense and experience suggests this storm is not done strengthening.… This is really scary. This is not a test, as your governor said earlier today. This is the real thing.” Katrina “is a very, very dangerous hurricane, and capable of causing a lot of damage and loss of life if we’re not careful.” “This thing is like Hurricane Opal,” Mayfield says, referring to the 1995 Category 3 hurricane that hit the Florida panhandle. “We’re seeing 12-foot seas along the Louisiana coast already.” [Times-Picayune Blog, 8/27/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Opal, Max Mayfield

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expands the hurricane watch westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and eastward to the Florida-Alabama border, and states that a hurricane warning likely will be required for portions of the Northern Gulf Coast later tonight or Sunday. Landfall in southeast Louisiana is likely in “a little under” 48 hours. (In fact, Katrina will make landfall in 32 hours .) According to the NHC, Katrina will likely strengthen, and may become a Category 5 hurricane before landfall. Katrina likely will move west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Models continue to diverge, with some indicating Katrina will turn northward, while others indicate Katrina will shift westward. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 380 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West at 7 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph, with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 945 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 45 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 12 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 20 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 21 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a special advisory that, with sustained winds of 145 mph, Katrina has become a Category 4 hurricane. Katrina also continues to grow, as hurricane winds now extend 70 miles from the center, and NHC warns that Katrina can yet strengthen, and will likely move northwest later today. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 310 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 8 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 mph, with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 935 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 75 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 2:00 am advisory leads with the warning that potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina is beginning to turn northward toward Southeastern Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast and that sustained hurricane-force winds are already occurring along the Southeastern Louisiana Coast. Katrina will likely make landfall with Category 4 or Category 5 intensity. The NHC warns that winds will be significantly stronger on upper floors of high-rise buildings than those near ground level. An 83 mph wind gust has been reported just east of the Chandeleur Islands (Mississippi), a 75 mph gust at Grand Isle, Lousiana, and a 60 mph gust has already been reported in New Orleans. Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels can be expected, with some surges reaching as high as 28 feet. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area may be overtopped. A bouy 50 miles east of the Mississippi River has reported waves as high as 40 feet already. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 70 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River; 130 miles south-southeast of New Orleans
bullet Direction and Speed: North at near 12 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 910 mb
bullet Size: hurricane winds extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina, still a Category 4 hurricane, continues to intensify and grow larger. The NHC reiterates the hurricane warning for Louisiana to Florida, and expands the area covered by a tropical storm warning. It warns further that, “While the details of the landfall intensity cannot be known at this time… Katrina will be a very dangerous hurricane at landfall…. It must be emphasized that the exact landfall point cannot be specified and that Katrina is a large hurricane that will affect a large area,” warns the NHC. “NHC now expects Katrina’s path to move north later today.” Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 275 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 10 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 145 mph, with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 935 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 85 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 11 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 26 percent;
bullet New Orleans, LA: 29 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina is now a “potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane” and is headed for the Northern Gulf Coast. Although the NHC cannot predict the exact strength at landfall, Katrina is “expected to be a devastating Category 4 or 5 hurricane at landfall.” The NHC forecasts coastal storm surge flooding 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels, with higher surges of up to 25 feet, as well as large and dangerous battering waves near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 12 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 160 mph, with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 908 mb [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina, already a potentially catastrophic hurricane headed for the Northern Gulf Coast, continues to gain strength. Katrina is getting stronger-and bigger. The NHC notes that Katrina is now as strong as Hurricane Camille was in 1969, only larger, and warns that storm surge flooding will be 18-22 feet above normal, with surges to 28 feet in some areas. Although hurricanes rarely sustain these extreme winds for long, the NHC reports no obvious large-scale effects that could cause Katrina to weaken substantially. Katrina’s path likely will move northwest, then north-northwest over the next 24 hours. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 225 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 12 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 175 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 907 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane winds now extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend to 205 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 12 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 33 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 35 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Camille, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory leads by warning, “Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina headed for the Northern Gulf Coast.” Conditions are already deteriorating along portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast, and they will continue to deteriorate throughout the evening. Katrina, still a Category 5 hurricane, is likely to make landfall with Category 4 or 5 intensity. The NHC reiterates that storm surge flooding will be 18-22 feet above normal, with increased surge to 28 feet in some areas, and warns that “some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped.” Katrina’s minimum central pressure is now the fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
bullet Direction and Speed: Northwest at near 13 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 175 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 902 mb
bullet Size: Hurricane winds extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend outward for 230 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 5 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 38 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 47 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) again leads its advisory by warning that “Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina” continues to approach the northern gulf coast. Still a Category 5 hurricane, Katrina will likely turn north in the next 12-24 hours. Katrina remains quite large, and will likely cause storm surge flooding of 18-22 feet above normal, with increased surge to 28 feet in some areas. The surge may overtop New Orleans’ levees. Some changes to Katrina’s structure indicates that there could be some weakening, although Katrina likely will still be a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane at landfall. While “there is great significance for the City of New Orleans in the details of the path of Katrina, the path could vary 30-50 miles 12-18 hours from landfall.” Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 105 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River; about 170 miles south-southeast of New Orleans
bullet Direction and Speed: North-northwest at near 10 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: 160 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 904 mb
bullet Size: hurricane winds extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles
bullet Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
bullet Panama City, FL: 2 percent
bullet Gulfport, MS: 54 percent
bullet New Orleans, LA: 59 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC)‘s midnight advisory leads with: “Potentially catastrophic [Category 5] Hurricane Katrina continues to approach the Northern Gulf Coast…sustained hurricane-force winds nearing the Southeastern Louisiana coast.” Already, a wind gust to 98 mph has been reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana. Katrina remains quite large, and will likely cause storm surge flooding of 18-22 feet above normal, with increased surge to 28 feet in some areas, and may overtop New Orleans’ levees. Some changes to Katrina’s structure indicates that there could be some weakening, although the NHC reiterates that Katrina likely will still be a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
bullet Location: 90 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River; 150 miles south-southeast of New Orleans
bullet Direction and Speed: North-northwest at near 10 mph
bullet Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 160 mph with higher gusts
bullet Estimated Central Pressure: 908 mb
bullet Size: hurricane winds now extend 105 miles from the center; tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Katrina is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 105 mph. Katrina remains huge, with hurricane force winds extending 125 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles. Katrina’s center is now 40 miles south-southwest of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Minimum central pressure has increased to 940 MB. [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Katrina is now a still-dangerous Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of nearly 95 mph. The hurricane remains huge, with hurricane force winds extending 125 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles. Katrina’s center is now 20 miles south-southwest of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. [National Hurricane Center, 8/29/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, National Hurricane Center

Timeline Tags: Hurricane Katrina

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