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Context of 'October 11, 2007: Iraq State Bonds Indicate Surge Is Failing, Says MIT Economist'

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Technology Review, a magazine published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, runs an article by Professor Richard Muller arguing that audio messages apparently released by Osama bin Laden may be fakes. According to Muller, the US’s counterterrorism efforts are still going strong, making it hard for al-Qaeda to operate. Therefore, “its sympathizers desperately need encouragement from their charismatic leader,” which is why the organization is making fake audio tapes. Video tapes would be more convincing proof of bin Laden’s continued existence, but are harder to fake and therefore not forthcoming. Bin Laden is either dead or injured, and unable to make recordings, Muller argues, and adds that although voice recognition, a technique used by the US government to identify the voice on the audio tapes, is a “rapidly developing technology,” it can have problems with the poor quality tapes the man thought to be bin Laden is releasing. Therefore, the tapes may be cut and pasted excerpts of past recordings, or, more likely, made by one of bin Laden’s children, such as his son Saad, reportedly an al-Qaeda member. [Technology Review, 1/23/2004]

Entity Tags: Saad bin Laden, Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, Richard A. Muller

Timeline Tags: Complete 911 Timeline

Chart showing default rate since beginning of surge.Chart showing default rate since beginning of surge. [Source: Wall Street Journal]A Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist writes that according to economic indicators, the US military surge in Iraq is not working, and actually may be undermining US military efforts to bring order to that ravaged nation. Until now, few have tried to measure the success of the surge by using financial indicators, in part because of the lack of usable economic data available from Iraq, but Michael Greenstone of MIT’s economics department has made just such an attempt, using the long-term performance of Iraq state bonds to gauge how investors believe the prospects in Iraq are shaping up. Greenstone is not optimistic. “After the surge, there was a sharp decline in the price of those bonds, relative to alternative bonds,” Greenstone writes. He judges the performance of Iraq state bonds and credit default swaps against benchmark performers such as the Lehman Brothers emerging markets bond index, and against bonds issued in Qatar. Greenstone draws the conclusion that the global market is betting more and more on the likelihood that Iraq will default on its bonds, and concludes, “This finding suggests that, to date, the surge is failing to pave the way toward a stable Iraq and may in fact be undermining it.” [Wall Street Journal, 10/11/2007]

Entity Tags: Michael Greenstone, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

US State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley calls the treatment of alleged whistleblower Bradley Manning “ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid.” The remarks are made at a talk at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology about how new media are impacting foreign policy, during a question-and-answer session. Crowley is asked about what he thinks about WikiLeaks and the US “torturing a prisoner in a military brig.” After criticising the conditions of Manning’s detention, Crowley adds, “None the less Bradley Manning is in the right place,” and goes on to say that in Washington’s view, “there is sometimes a need for secrets… for diplomatic progress to be made.” When the remarks become news, Crowley will issue a clarification: “What I said was my personal opinion. It does not reflect an official [US government] policy position. I defer to the Department of Defense regarding the treatment of Bradley Manning.” [BBC, 3/12/2011]

Entity Tags: Bradley Manning, US Department of State, Philip J. Crowley

Timeline Tags: Torture of US Captives, Iraq under US Occupation, Misc Entries, Domestic Propaganda

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