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Profile: Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson was a participant or observer in the following events:

According to the US Labor Department, August jobless rates rise to record highs in California and Nevada; 27 other states see a rise in unemployment as well. Unemployment numbers climb to 12.2 percent in California and 13.2 percent in Nevada. With its unemployment rate rising to 15.2 percent in August, Michigan continues to lead all states, with Rhode Island rounding out the top four states with the highest unemployment since data collection began in 1976. Economists predict that the national unemployment rate will reach 10 percent in 2009, an indication that the recovery will not be led by consumers, although the job market is reportedly showing signs of stabilization, and economic growth may resume in the third quarter. States reporting at least 10 percent unemployment fell from 15 to 14 with Indiana’s rate dropping below the threshold. For a fourth consecutive month, joblessness in the District of Columbia exceeded 10 percent as well, rising from 10.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Nationally, unemployment climbed to a 26-year high, to 9.7 percent. According to Steven Cochrane, director of regional economics at Moody’s Economy.com: “There’s still a fair amount of weakness in some of the larger states. State finances are probably going to be among the last of all the various components of the broad economy to turn around.” Since the recession began in December 2007, the US economy has lost 6.9 million jobs. It is the largest national job loss since the Great Depression.
Jobless Benefits Claims - Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics says first-time unemployment claims have to drop by 100,000 to about 432,000 to be steady with company payrolls. He expects a reasonable decline in first-time claims by next spring. Initial claims categorize those filing their first week of unemployment benefits, while continuing claims reflect those filing each week until the end of their 26-week benefit year. Jobless figures generally do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, nor do the figures include those whose benefits have ended. [Bloomberg, 9/18/2009; CNN, 9/24/2009]

Entity Tags: Ian Shepherdson, California, High Frequency Economics, US Department of Labor, Rhode Island, District of Columbia, Moody’s Economy (.com), Nevada, Steven Cochrane

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Ethan Harris of Bank of America.Ethan Harris of Bank of America. [Source: National Association for Business Economics]Many prominent economists and financial leaders lay the blame for the US credit rating downgrade (see August 5, 2011) at the feet of Congressional Republicans. Republicans have been unified in blaming the Obama administration’s economic policies for the downgrade (see August 6-9, 2011), though House Speaker John Boehner boasted that he and his fellow Republicans received “98 percent” of what they wanted in the debt-ceiling legislation that led to the downgrade (see August 1, 2011). Nobel Prize-winning Paul Krugman, a self-described liberal, blamed Congressional Republicans for the downgrade hours after credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s announced it (see August 5-6, 2011), and S&P itself implied that Republicans were at fault for the downgrade for being willing to risk sending the nation into default if they were blocked from getting their way in the debt-ceiling legislation (see August 11, 2011). Even before the credit rating downgrade, the New York Times reports, “macroeconomists and private sector forecasters were warning that the direction in which the new House Republican majority had pushed the White House and Congress this year—for immediate spending cuts, no further stimulus measures and no tax increases, ever—was wrong for addressing the nation’s two main ills, a weak economy now and projections of unsustainably high federal debt in coming years” (see May 20, 2011). These economists and forecasters generally agree with the Obama administration’s wishes to immediately stimulate the economy to include greater private-sector spending and create more jobs, with spending cuts more useful as a long-term remedy. Republicans in Congress and on the presidential campaign trail, however, continue to insist that their policies are what will rescue the US economy; House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) says that he and his fellow Republicans “were not elected to raise taxes or take more money out of the pockets of hardworking families and business people,” and will never consider tax or revenue increases of any sort. Even Republican economic figures such as Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein and Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary under President George W. Bush, say that revenue increases should balance any spending cuts, a position Congressional Republicans—particularly “tea party” Republicans such as presidential candidate Michele Bachmann (R-MN)—refuse to countenance. Bank of America senior economics research official Ethan Harris writes: “Given the scale of the debt problem, a credible plan requires both revenue enhancement measures and entitlement reform. Washington’s recent debt deal did not include either.” Ian C. Shepherdson, the chief US economist for research firm High Frequency Economist, says, “I think the US has every chance of having a good year next year, but the politicians are doing their damnedest to prevent it from happening—the Republicans are—and the Democrats to my eternal bafflement have not stood their ground.” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, and Laurence H. Meyer, former Federal Reserve governor, both call the Republicans’ calls for spending cuts “job-kill[ers].” Bill Gross, head of the bond-trading firm Pimco, lambasts Republicans and what he calls “co-opted Democrats” for throwing aside widely accepted economic theory for Republican-led insistence that draconian spending cuts, largely in social safety-net programs such as Social Security and Medicare, will “cure” the US’s economic ills. Instead, Gross writes: “An anti-Keynesian, budget-balancing immediacy imparts a constrictive noose around whatever demand remains alive and kicking. Washington hassles over debt ceilings instead of job creation in the mistaken belief that a balanced budget will produce a balanced economy. It will not.” [New York Times, 8/12/2011]

Entity Tags: Ian Shepherdson, US Congress, Eric Cantor, Bill Gross, Standard & Poor’s, Henry Paulson, Paul Krugman, New York Times, Joel Prakken, John Boehner, Laurence H. Meyer, Martin Feldstein, Michele Bachmann, Ethan Harris, Obama administration

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

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