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Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah rejects IMF and World Bank recommendations to implement a economic development strategy based on non-inflationary borrowing and reduced government spending. Ghana’s refusal to implement these reforms makes it ineligible to receive loans from the two institutions. Nkrumah continues with a policy aimed at diversifying the Ghanaian economy through import substituting industrialization (ISI). [BBC, 11/4/1997; West Africa Review, 1999; Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2004]

Entity Tags: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Kwame Nkrumah

Timeline Tags: US-Ghana (1952-1966)

The IMF and World Bank begin working with the military junta in Ghana, providing the country with standby credit. Western countries agree to postpone Ghana’s debt obligations until December when an IMF-sponsored meeting is scheduled to convene (see December 1966). [West Africa Review, 1999]

Entity Tags: World Bank, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: US-Ghana (1952-1966)

The military government of Ghana meets with the Paris Club of Western governments and forges a debt rescheduling agreement, which defers Ghana’s debt obligations between June 1966 and December 1968 to the period 1971-1979. [West Africa Review, 1999]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, World Bank

Timeline Tags: US-Ghana (1952-1966)

Edward M. Bernstein, former director of research for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and attendee to the Breton Woods conference, calls on international governments to handle all reserve exchange transactions in a reserve settlement account whereby “countries would earmark their gold, SDR’s (Special Drawing Rights), dollar, and other foreign exchange” for the account. In doing so the countries would have the opportunity to settle all reserve transactions through the account, thereby eliminating excess reserve accruals and violent market influences. [New York Times, 8/26/1971]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, Edward M. Bernstein

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

By 1979, Pakistan’s economy is on the brink of collapse. Pakistan owes large debts to international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but lacks the money to pay off its loans. The criminal BCCI bank led by Agha Hasan Abedi comes up with a scheme to save Pakistan’s economy. In 1979, the IMF says that if Pakistan increases its hard currency reserves by at least $50 million for 90 days, Pakistan’s State Bank can raise the lending limits for commercial banks. With banks able to make more loans, the economy will be able to perform better. BCCI secretly loans the State Bank the hard currency until the 90 days are over and then takes it back. Having established this system, BCCI helps Pakistan’s State Bank numerous times in subsequent years to avoid financial limitations placed on Pakistan. BCCI will finally collapse in 1991 (see July 5, 1991). [Beaty and Gwynne, 1993, pp. 292-293]

Entity Tags: Bank of Credit and Commerce International, International Monetary Fund, Pakistan State Bank, World Bank

Timeline Tags: Complete 911 Timeline

The International Monetary Fund approves of a $3.9 billion to the Mexican government. As a condition for receiving the loan, the Mexican government is expected to engage in a series of free market reforms. Such reforms include: fiscal austerity, privatization of state-owned companies, reductions in trade barriers, industrial deregulation, and foreign investment liberalization. [New York Times, 12/24/1982, pp. D4; Global Exchange, 9/2001, pp. 3 pdf file]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, Mexico

Timeline Tags: Neoliberalism and Globalization

The IMF’s recommended reforms are widely viewed to have a negative effect on the earnings of the average Mexican. For example:
bullet In the period between 1983 and 1988, per capita income falls at a rate of about 5 percent per year.
bullet In the same period, the value of workers’ real wages falls from 40 to 50 percent.
bullet The share of national income received by workers declines from 49 percent in 1981 to 29 percent in 1990.
bullet Adjusted for inflation, the Mexicans’ real wages fall by 75 percent throughout the 1980s. [Global Exchange, 9/2001, pp. 4 pdf file; Harvey, 2005, pp. 100]

Entity Tags: Mexico, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Neoliberalism and Globalization

Financial sources inform media outlets that the Mexican government’s failure to cut its budget deficit in accordance with an IMF austerity program may jeopardize its access to $908 million worth of assistance. This news comes at about the same time as an earthquake hits Mexico that will require the government to spend even more on reconstruction, thereby increasing the deficit. The IMF says that it will not make any exception as a result of Mexico’s fiscal needs following the earthquake. [New York Times, 9/20/1985, pp. A6]

Entity Tags: Mexico, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Neoliberalism and Globalization

The IMF grants Haiti a $24.6 million loan under its Structural Adjustment Facility (SAF). As a condition, Haiti is expected to cut public spending, close “inefficient public enterprises”, and liberalize its trade policy. [Inter Press Service, 12/30/1986]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Neoliberalism and Globalization

One of the conditions for Haiti obtaining the IMF loan it previously received (see December 30, 1986) was a lowering of tariffs on rice and an end to support for domestic rice farmers. This has the effect of putting much of Haiti’s rice farmers out of business. [Washington Post, 4/13/2000; Global Exchange, 9/2001, pp. 13 pdf file]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Neoliberalism and Globalization

Haitian Prime Minister Smarck Michel announces that Haiti will continue with plans to privatize nine state-owned companies, though he acknowledges that most Haitians are “against the idea of privatization” and that for many, “the word is a demon.” In an effort to sell the plan to the public the government has been euphemistically describing it as the “democratization of assets.” The privatization scheme—to include Haiti’s flour mill, a cement factory, its air and seaports, telephone exchanges, and electricity—must be implemented in order for Haiti to receive $170 million in structural adjustment loans from the World Bank, the IMF, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the European Union. The loans are part of a five-year, $1.2-billion aid program (see (October 18, 1996)) which Aristide had tacitly agreed to in August 1994 (see August 1994). [Inter Press Service, 9/8/1995]

Entity Tags: Smarck Michel, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Haiti Coup

Haitian Prime Minister Smarck Michel begins a 10-day trip aimed at “unlocking about [$1 billion] in foreign aid stalled after a political row in Haiti about planned privatization.” He begins in New York where he meets with commercial bankers. Afterwards, in a two-hour press conference with the Haitian press, he explains to his Haitian viewers that the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) are holding back $150 million until Haiti can “fulfill the conditions which structural adjustment demands,” and warns that there will be “dire consequences” if the Haitian people continue to resist privatization and other neoliberal reforms. [Haiti Progres, 9/13/1995]

Entity Tags: World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), International Monetary Fund, Smarck Michel

Timeline Tags: Haiti Coup

During the World Bank’s annual meeting, the Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pressure Haiti to sign a letter of intent assuring the US, IMF, and other donors that Haiti would proceed with the Structural Adjustment Program that President Aristide had agreed to in August 1994 (see August 1994) before he was restored to power by a US-led multinational force. Haiti, whose parliament and population are strongly opposed to the neoliberal reforms, refuses to sign the letter. [Multinational Monitor, 11/2004]

Entity Tags: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Smarck Michel, Jean-Bertrand Aristide

Timeline Tags: Haiti Coup

US Vice President Al Gore visits Haiti on the one-year anniversary of Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s return to power. During his visit, he meets with President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and stresses the need for his government to comply with the structural reforms which he had agreed to implement in August 1994 (see August 1994). “We discussed the need for continuing international assistance to meet the developmental requirements of Haiti and the steps the government of Haiti and its people need to take in order to ensure the continued flow of these funds,” Gore recounts during a brief press conference. Earlier in the month, Aristide’s government refused to sign a letter of intent assuring the US, IMF, and other donors that the country would follow though with the mandated reforms (see Early October 1995). [Inter Press Service, 10/16/1995; Multinational Monitor, 11/2004]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, Albert Arnold (“Al”) Gore, Jr., Jean-Bertrand Aristide

Timeline Tags: Haiti Coup

Haitian Prime Minister Smarck Michel resigns after President Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s cabinet refuses to accept the privatization package that the US, IMF, and other international donors have been pushing. He is replaced by Foreign Minister Claudette Werleigh. Michel will return to the Haitian political arena in 2004 when he is appointed as planning minister (see Mid-March 2004) following the February ouster of Aristide. [Inter Press Service, 10/16/1995; Multinational Monitor, 11/2004]

Entity Tags: Smarck Michel, International Monetary Fund, Jean-Bertrand Aristide

Timeline Tags: Haiti Coup

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund announce that they will send their economists to Iraq to assess needs for reconstruction as soon as it is safe to do so. The decision was made “with strong pressure from the United States,” the New York Times reports. [New York Times, 4/14/2004]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, World Bank

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

A team of economists and officials from the World Bank, IMF, and UN meet in Iraq to consider a new economic policy for the country. Nicholas Krafft, one of the economists with the World Bank, says that Iraq’s economy would be more accurately described as a “socialist command economy” than a “post-conflict economy.” He says “a macro-economic framework for Iraq including budget, fiscal, and monetary issues” needs to be established as part of the country’s transition to a market economy. “The issues of subsidies, prices, and state enterprises will have to be dealt with,” he adds. Kraft also says “it is important to involve Iraqis in this decision and the coalition is increasingly doing that.” [Agence France-Presse, 6/10/2003]

Entity Tags: Nicholas Krafft, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, United Nations

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan interrogated.Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan interrogated. [Source: BBC's "The New Al-Qaeda."]Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, a young Pakistani, is arrested in Lahore after six weeks of surveillance by Pakistani authorities in conjunction with US intelligence agencies. The US and Pakistanis learned of Noor Khan after arresting another al-Qaeda suspect, Musaad Aruchi, a month before (see June 12, 2004), and they had been tracking him since then. Noor Khan is taken to a high-security prison by Pakistani authorities, who resisted pressure from the CIA to let them completely handle the operation. [Guardian, 8/8/2004] American intelligence agents find what they later call a “treasure trove” of information in Noor Khan’s computers and documents. [CNN, 8/2/2004] Khan is a communications hub of sorts for al-Qaeda. He is in frequent contact with dozens of other al-Qaeda terrorists around the world and passing messages back and forth from more senior al-Qaeda operatives. Former National Security Council official Gideon Rose will later say, “It is obviously a very serious victory. It is obvious that there is a real find here.” [Guardian, 8/8/2004] Khan, who speaks fluent English, is not just a center for expediting clandestine communications between al-Qaeda leaders and their underlings, but also handles and collates documents, reports, maps, and other information, and sometimes performs his own intelligence-gathering, usually on trips to Britain. [MSNBC, 8/8/2004] Khan’s computer contains detailed surveillance information about five US buildings—the Stock Exchange and Citigroup’s headquarters in New York City, the Prudential building in Newark, and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank headquarters in Washington—all possible targets for future al-Qaeda attacks, though the information is all from 2000 and 2001. Other sites in New York City and San Francisco are mentioned, and meticulous information about London’s Heathrow Airport is also found. Pakistani intelligence officials believe that the information indicates a “present” threat, and so inform their US counterparts. Later in the month, the Pakistanis convince Khan to “turn,” or become a double agent. Khan will subsequently send e-mails to dozens of operatives all requesting that they contact him immediately (see July 24-25, 2004). [Guardian, 8/8/2004]

Entity Tags: World Bank, Prudential, New York Stock Exchange, Pakistan Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, International Monetary Fund, Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, Central Intelligence Agency, Citigroup, Gideon Rose, Heathrow Airport, Al-Qaeda, Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani

Timeline Tags: Complete 911 Timeline

The new Iraqi government settles with the IMF on $81 million in overdue financial obligations to the organization. The settlement paves the way for Iraq to receive emergency assistance from the IMF (see September 29, 2004). [International Monetary Fund, 9/29/2004]

Entity Tags: Iraq, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

The Iraqi government agrees to meet conditions set by the IMF for an “enhanced post-conflict facility” program. The IMF program will include $436.3 million in Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance loans to the Iraqi government. The amount will be upped if Iraq meets more demanding conditions. A press release issued by the organization states that it intends to develop “a reform program in areas in which progress must be made in 2005 to set the economy on a sustainable path, including tax reform, financial sector reform, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, and enhancing the governance and transparency of the oil sector, all of which will be key in promoting the recovery and growth of the private sector.” [International Monetary Fund, 9/29/2004; Inter Press Service, 10/1/2004] One of the reforms the new Iraqi government agrees to implement is the rolling back of Iraq’s huge subsidies system. But as Inter Press Service notes, Iraq’s food subsidies system “kept millions of Iraqis from starvation under US and UK-pressed sanctions imposed by the United Nations after the 1991 Gulf War.… It is believed that many more Iraqis would have died if not for Hussein’s strong subsidies system that gave food to Iraqi families.” [US Department of State, 12/21/2004; Inter Press Service, 12/24/2004]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

Rodrigo Rato, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), urges oil producing countries to save the extra revenue generated from high oil prices. Venezuela, the world’s fifth largest oil exporter, shuns the advice and continues to use its oil revenue to fund literacy, health, and other social programs. In addition to the money that Petroleos de Venezuela, the country’s state oil company, contributes to the government, the company directly funds and administers another $3 billion in social projects. [BBC, 11/24/2004]

Entity Tags: Venezuela, International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato

Timeline Tags: US-Venezuela (1948-2005)

Rich creditor nations in the Paris Club announce they have reached a deal with the US on the proposed forgiveness of the $38.9 billion owed to those countries. The US wanted 95 percent of the debt canceled while the Paris Club was initially only willing to forgive 50 percent. Under the agreement, the Paris Club agrees to forgive 80 percent. Thirty percent of this will be forgiven immediately, followed by another 30 percent when Iraq agrees on a reform program with the International Monetary Fund, which it is expected to do in 2005. The remaining 20 percent will be canceled in 2008, after Iraq has implemented the reforms. The creditor countries owed the largest sums of money are Japan (4.1 billion dollars), France (2.9 billion), Germany (2.4 billion), the United States (2.2 billion), Britain (900 million), and Russia (9 billion). [St. Petersburg Times, 11/22/2004; Inter Press Service, 11/23/2004] The deal is denounced in a resolution passed by the Iraqi National Assembly on November 30. The resolution states that “the Paris Club has no right to make decisions and impose IMF conditions on Iraq.” It also says that nearly all of the debt is odious and should be canceled. [Inter Press Service, 11/23/2004; Iraqi National Assembly, 11/30/2004]

Entity Tags: Iraqi National Congress, Paris Club, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

The IMF’s 24-member executive board approves a standby arrangement for a new $685 million loan for Iraq. The IMF previously provided the country with a $436.3 million emergency post-conflict loan in September 2004 (see September 29, 2004). The approval means that creditor nations will forgive an additional 30 percent of Iraq’s debt, all of which was incurred under the rule of Saddam Hussein. If Iraq fulfills the requirements in the standby arrangement, another 20 percent of its debt will be forgiven (see November 22, 2004). [Associated Press, 12/23/2005; Agence France-Presse, 12/23/2005] One of the reforms required by the stand-by arrangement is that Iraq work with the IMF on the drafting of an oil law to be implemented by the end of 2006. [Bretton Woods Project, 1/23/2006] The agreement states that Iraq needs to “draft a new petroleum law in line with the new constitution and international best practices, thereby defining the fiscal regime for oil and establishing the contractual framework for private investment in the sector.” It adds that IMF staff have underscored “the need to press ahead with structural fiscal reforms,” which include “the move forward toward the commercialization of oil-related state enterprises, and the drafting of a new petroleum law.” [International Monetary Fund, 12/7/2005, pp. 18 pdf file]

Entity Tags: Iraq, International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

The International Monetary Fund is reportedly given the opportunity to review the latest draft of Iraq’s proposed oil law. The draft was sent to the US government and oil companies in July (see July 2006). [Independent, 1/7/2007]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

Iraq’s cabinet approves the February 15 draft of the proposed Iraqi oil law (see February 15, 2007). The law has not yet been seen by Iraq’s parliament. The only parties that have reviewed the law, aside from its authors, have been nine international oil companies, the British and US governments, and the International Monetary Fund. The cabinet expects that the law will be quickly passed by Iraq’s parliament and implemented by the end of May. [Associated Press, 2/26/2007; Inter Press Service, 2/28/2007]

Entity Tags: United Kingdom, International Monetary Fund, United States

Timeline Tags: Iraq under US Occupation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approves a $2.1 billion loan for Iceland, whose economy has been devastated by the global financial crisis. Iceland becomes the first Western European nation to get an IMF loan since Britain in 1976. [BBC, 2/2/2009]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Iceland, which has been devastated by the global financial crisis, has taken the first important steps towards restoring financial stability. It says the key objective of stabilizing Iceland’s currency, the krona, is being met. [BBC, 2/2/2009]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Depending on the extent and length of the economic crisis, the International Labor Organization (ILO) predicts in its annual Global Employment Trends Report that global unemployment could increase from 33 million to 51 million people, up 18 million from 2007 figures. The ILO urges global governments to emphasize job creation in their fiscal stimulus packages and improve social protection systems for the unemployed and the employed. “We are now facing a global jobs crisis,” Juan Somavia, ILO director general says. “Progress in poverty reduction is unraveling, and middle classes worldwide are weakening. The political and security implications are daunting.” The ILO is a United Nations organization that has painted three 2009 global unemployment scenarios, ranging from bad to worst. “In all scenarios, there will be a global unemployment rate increase in 2009, particularly the developed economies,” the ILO report says. Its most optimistic scenario is based on the International Monetary Fund’s November 2008 world economic growth projection, which indicates that there would be a global unemployment rate at 6.1 percent. This scenario has 18 million more people unemployed by the end of 2009, in comparison to the end of 2007, with a global unemployment rate of 6.1 percent. Under the ILO’s second and third scenarios, the numbers could rise by 30 million or even 51 million, with a much slower economic recovery, with unemployment reaching higher levels in developed countries. Under the ILO’s third scenario, approximately 200 million workers could be pushed into extreme poverty with incomes as low as $1.25 a day; 140 million would be in Asia. “The world is facing an unprecedented crisis that calls for creative solutions,” the organization says. [Deutsche Presse-Agentur (Hamburg), 1/28/2009]

Entity Tags: Juan Somavia, International Labor Organization (ILO), International Monetary Fund

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

On his website “Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor,” New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini interprets June’s unemployment report as a strong indication that any economic recovery indicators are “alleged green shoots” that are “mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure.” Known as “Dr. Doom” for his prescient 2006 speech to the International Monetary Fund warning fellow economists that the housing bubble would eventually lead to major global recession, Roubini analyzed June’s loss of 460,000 jobs as a strong indication that conditions in the labor market remain “extremely weak.” He also predicts that unemployment could reach 10 percent by the end of summer and that, by the end of 2009, the jobless rate “may well be at 10.5 if not 11 percent.” Roubini cites numerous reasons that an economic recovery, stumped by record high joblessness, is not likely to occur until unemployment falls below 8.5 percent in late 2013.
Roubini June 2009 Jobs Report Analysis -
bullet Details of the unemployment report are worse than reported since, not only are there presently large job losses, but firms are inducing workers to reduce their hours and their hourly wages. According to Roubini, when observing the effect of the labor market on labor income, include three important elements in the total value of labor income—jobs, hours, and average hourly wages. Roubini says all three elements are currently falling, making their effects on labor income much more significant than job losses alone.
bullet Job losses continue to exceed those in the last two recessions, and the unemployment rate has been rising steadily in the current cycle.
bullet Rising unemployment will raise default on consumer loans and further pressure bank balance sheets.
bullet Without home equity or easy credit, ongoing job losses and slower income growth will also keep up the pressure on consumer spending.
bullet Large unemployment, underutilization of labor, and sharp slowdown in wages will add to deflationary pressures in the coming quarters.
bullet Bank losses and tight lending are impacting households who already face wealth losses from housing and equity markets.
bullet Impact of financial sector problems on the real economy are intensifying job losses and leading to lower work hours and wage growth. This puts further pressure on consumer spending while raising mortgage, credit card, and other debt defaults (the unemployment rate is highly correlated with delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans), also putting additional pressure on financial and corporate sector balance sheets.
bullet US labor market aspects are worsening. Factor discouraged and partially-employed workers into jobless statistics, and the true and current unemployment rate is above 16 percent.
bullet Temporary jobs are falling sharply, also an indicator that labor market conditions are becoming worse.
bullet The average unemployment duration is at an all-time high, indicating that people are not only losing jobs, they’re finding it much more difficult to find new jobs.
bullet Based on the birth/death model, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to add approximately 150,000 to 200,000 jobs, distorting downward the number of job losses. However, based on the initial claims for unemployment benefits, job losses are closer to 600,000 per month rather than officially reported figures such as the 467,000 in the June report.
bullet Should unemployment rates peak at or around 11 percent in 2010, expected bank loans and securities losses will be much higher than estimated in recent stress tests.
bullet While there was a retail sales boost and a boost in real consumer spending during January and February 2009, the numbers from April, May, and now June remain extremely weak in real terms.
bullet The significant increase in real personal income in April and May occurred only because of tax rebates and unemployment benefits.
bullet There was a sharp fall in real personal spending in April, with only a marginal increase in May, suggesting that, just as in 2008, most tax rebates were saved rather than spent. In 2008, people expected the tax rebate to stimulate consumption through September, yet the personal spending increase in April, May, and June 2008 fizzled out by July.
bullet Expect further significant reduction in consumer spending in the fall after the effects of the tax rebates fade since, according to Roubini, 2009 households are much more worried about jobs, income, credit cards, and mortgages than they are in personal consumption and spending. Roubini suggests that only approximately 20 cents on the dollar—rather than the 30 cents of 2008—is going to be spent in the fall of 2009.
bullet By the end of 2010 and in 2011, large budgets and their monetization will eventually increase expected inflation, leading to a further increase in 10-year treasuries, long-term government bond yields, and mortgage and private-market rates. Combined with higher oil prices partly driven to increase by the treasuries, bonds, mortgage, and private market wall of liquidity, as opposed to fundamentals alone, this “could produce a double whammy that could push the economy into a double-dip or W-shaped recession by late 2010 or 2011, so the outlook ahead for the US and global economy remains extremely weak.”
bullet The unemployment rate is already over 10 percent in approximately 13 states—and steadily rising. The ISM Employment Index for manufacturing and non-manufacturing has been contracting at a slower pace in recent months. Manpower Survey shows most employers plan to hold head count steady in the third quarter of 2009 relative to the second quarter of 2009. Online job vacancies fell in June, but have shown some improvement since March. JOLTS: The job openings level in April was at its lowest point since the series began in 2001. The hiring and job openings rates were unchanged and remained low (see June 9, 2009).
Nobel Laureate Agrees - Economist Paul Krugman, 2008 Nobel laureate, comments: “Workers at any one company can help save their jobs by accepting lower wages and helping make the company more competitive. But when employers across the economy cut wages at the same time, the result is higher unemployment and lower wages in the economy. This will keep pressure on paying off debt and on consumer spending and the real economy.” [RGE Monitor, 7/2/2009]

Entity Tags: US Department of Labor, Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, International Monetary Fund, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Group of 8 (G-8) leaders from across the globe release a statement from their meeting in L’Aquila, Italy, saying that economic recovery from the worst recession since World War II is too frail for them to consider repealing efforts to infuse money into the economy. US President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, European Commission President Jose Barroso, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev assembled for the annual gathering where Obama pressed to maintain an open door for additional stimulus actions. A new drop in stocks generated global concern that, to date, the $2 trillion already sunk into economies had not provided the economic bump that would bring consumers and businesses back to life. “The G-8 needed to sound a second wakeup call for the world economy,” Brown told reporters after the gathering’s opening sessions. “There are warning signals about the world economy that we cannot ignore.” A G-8 statement embraces options ranging from a second US stimulus package—advocated by some lawmakers and economists—to an emphasis by Germany on shifting the focus to deficit reduction.
What Next? - Disagreements over what to do next, as well as calls from developing nations to do more to counteract the slump, emphasize that the Group of 8 has little if any room to maneuver, since the largest borrowing binge in 60 years has, so far, failed to stop rising unemployment and has left investors doubting the potency of the recovery. Even as G-8 leaders held their first meeting, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index of stocks continued a five-day slide, and the 23-nation index had dropped 8 percent since its three-month rally that ended on June 2. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its 2010 growth forecast, saying the rebound would be “sluggish,” and urged governments to stay the course with economic stimuli. The IMF also said that emerging countries such as China would lead the way, with an expansion of 4.7 percent in 2010, up from their April prediction of 4 percent. “It’s a very volatile situation,” said European Commission President Barroso in a Bloomberg Television interview from L’Aquila. “We are not yet out of the crisis, but it seems now that the free fall is over.”
Exit Strategems Discussion - “Exit strategies will vary from country to country depending on domestic economic conditions and public finances,” the leaders conclude, but deputy US National Security Adviser Mike Froman tells reporters, “There is still uncertainty and risk in the system.” Froman says that although exit strategies should be drawn up, it’s not “time to put them into place.” The IMF forecasts that, in 2014, the debt of advanced economies will explode to at least 114 percent of US gross domestic product because of bank bailouts and recession-battling measures. German Chancellor Merkel, campaigning for re-election in September and the leading opponent of additional stimulus, warned against burgeoning budget deficits, which the IMF has predicted will rise to an average of 6 percent of the EU’s 2009 gross domestic product, from 2.3 percent in 2008. At last month’s European Union summit, Merkel pushed through a statement that called for “a reliable and credible exit strategy,” and insisted, “We have to get back on course with a sustainable budget, but with the emphasis on when the crisis is over.” [G8 Summit 2009, 7/2/2009; Bloomberg, 7/9/2009]

Entity Tags: Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index, Mike Froman, Jose Manuel Barroso, International Monetary Fund, Taro Aso, National Security Council, Nicolas Sarkozy, Silvio Berlusconi, Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown, Barack Obama, Standard & Poor’s, Stephen Harper, Dmitriy Medvedev

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

“The global recession is now over and a recovery has begun,” says Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, he says, the global recession has not been typical, so neither will the economic revival be. Writing in an article released by the IMF, Blanchard states: “One should not expect very high growth rates in the recovery. The turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.” The word “recovery” has a precise technological meaning—that the economy is again growing but, essentially, has not returned to previous levels of output, wealth, and employment. In other words, the economy is healing, yet is not yet healed. According to Blanchard, “The recession has been so destructive that we may not go back to the old growth path [and] potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis.” Blanchard says that growth is coming for most countries, for at least the next few quarters, but will not be sturdy enough to decrease unemployment. He says growth is still dependent on fiscal and monetary government stimulus policies. “To sustain growth will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,” he says. “Sustained recovery in the United States and elsewhere eventually requires rebalancing from public to private spending.” He also says that big fiscal deficits orchestrated to rouse the economy must be unwound. “The United States can’t rely on low interest rates to sustain the recovery, nor can it rely on consumer spending or investment filling the gap. Consumers are likely to save more in coming years. Businesses don’t need to invest much for the next few years, because so much of their capacity is idle. Sustained recovery is likely to require an increase in US net exports and a corresponding decrease in the rest of the world, coming mainly from Asia. China, for one, should increase its domestic demand,” he adds. [Marketwatch, 8/18/2009]

Entity Tags: International Monetary Fund, Olivier Blanchard

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Instead of releasing €12 billion ($17.2 billion) to help the Greek government’s worsening economic and political crises, EU leaders assembling in Luxembourg for seven hours, from Sunday night into Monday morning, place more pressure on the Greek government after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) required Europe to guarantee Greece’s finances for the next 12 months. Rather than act with a sense of urgency, EU finance ministers expect the Greek Parliament and President George Papandreou to pass an austerity bill. Greece’s crises threaten to topple the euro and EU financial markets. [New York Times, 6/20/2011]

Entity Tags: European Union, International Monetary Fund, Greece, Georgios Papandreou

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Eurozone policymakers fail to reach an agreement over the weekend on financial aid to bail out Greece, resulting in a sharp market drop on Monday morning as disappointed traders react to the leaders’ failure to guarantee the next €12 billion installment of Greece’s original bailout. Widespread speculation is that a disorganized Greek default will send Eurozone single-currency nations, as well as nations around the globe, into another panic. [Guardian, 6/20/2011]

Entity Tags: European Union, International Monetary Fund, Greece, Eurozone

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

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