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US confrontation with Iran

Think Tank Papers and Other Activities

Project: US Confrontation with Iran
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Richard Falkenrath, Executive Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, speaks at the Washington Institute’s Policy Forum on the issue of Iran and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Falkenrath argues that Iran “poses a greater long-term threat to US interests in the Persian Gulf,” asserting that it possesses significant quantities of chemical weapons, is developing and has small stocks of biological weapons, and intends to “produce medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and beyond.” The US should be concerned, he says, because a WMD-armed Iran would allow it to “deter the United States, disrupt US-led coalitions, and foment regional instability and arms races.” He recommends that the EU end its unconditional political and commercial ties with Iran, and work with the US and other allies to develop a new policy toward Iran and states like Russia that have been supplying Iran with nuclear materials. He also stresses that “US allies should enhance their ability to participate in US-led military operations against WMD-armed adversaries.” [Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, 6/8/1998]

Category Tags: Nuclear Program, Think Tank Activities

Mark Burles authors a report for the RAND Corporation on the subject of recent Chinese policy toward Russia and Central Asia. The report notes that while “China’s relationships with the countries of Central Asia do not carry the same potential threat to US interests as its relationship with Russia does,” China’s support “for the extension of pipeline routes from Central Asia through Iran [does have] the potential to generate conflict between Beijing and Washington.” Burles says China’s “pledge to help construct a pipeline from Kazakhstan to the Kazakh-Turkmen border, with the goal of eventually extending through to an Iranian port… would run counter to the current US policy of denying Iran access to Central Asian oil.” [Burles, 1999]

Entity Tags: Mark Burles

Category Tags: Geopolitics, Oil and Gas, Think Tank Activities

Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation authors a report warning that recent agreements between Russia and China demonstrate that the two countries are “positioning themselves to define the rules under which the United States, the European Union, Iran, and Turkey will be allowed to participate in the strategically important Central Asian region.”
Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty - The treaty, signed two days before, includes a commitment to pursue “[j]oint actions to offset a perceived US hegemonism.” Cohen says the treaty “should signal to the Western world that a major geopolitical shift may be taking place in the Eurasian balance of power.”
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) - Cohen says the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), created on June 14 (see June 14, 2001), and consisting of Russia, China, and the Central Asian States of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, could undermine US influence in Central Asia.
Military partnership - Cohen warns that the two counties are interested in boosting “each other’s military potential as well as that of other countries that pursue anti-American foreign policies.” They could encourage the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in order to “force the United States to spread its resources thinly to deal with evolving crises in different regions simultaneously.”
Russian and Chinese economic cooperation - There are “numerous projects for developing free economic zones along the Chinese-Russian border and an international port in the mouth of the Tumannaya river (Tumangan)….” The Russian and Chinese also plan to “cooperate in developing a network of railroads and pipelines in Central Asia, building a pan-Asian transportation corridor (the Silk Road) from the Far East to Europe and the Middle East.”
Cohen's conclusion - Cohen urges US policy makers to “examine the changing geostrategic reality and take steps to ensure that US security and national interests are not at risk.” [Heritage Foundation, 7/18/2001]

Entity Tags: Ariel Cohen, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Category Tags: Geopolitics, Think Tank Activities

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) hosts “The Future of Iran Mullahcracy, Democracy, and the War on Terror” at Washington DC’s Wohlstetter Conference Center. The forum, cosponsored by the Hudson Institute and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, includes a discussion on “What lies ahead for Iran?” and “What steps can the United States take to promote democratization and regime change in Iran?” Noted moderators and panelists include: Meyrav Wurmser of the Hudson Institute; Uri Lubrani of the Israeli Defense Ministry; US Senator Sam Brownback; Michael A. Ledeen and Reuel Marc Gerecht, both of the AEI; Bernard Lewis of Princeton University; and Morris Amitay of The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. [Institute, 5/6/2003]

Entity Tags: Morris J. Amitay, Bernard Lewis, Michael Ledeen, American Enterprise Institute, Meyrav Wurmser, Uri Lubrani, Samuel Brownback, Reuel Marc Gerecht

Category Tags: Neoconservative Hawks, Think Tank Activities

James Dobbins.James Dobbins. [Source: PBS]James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, writes an analytical piece on the subject of engagement with Iran: “Washington is not ready to join the Europeans in negotiating limits on Iran’s program, nor is it willing to offer any incentives. Conversely, the United States cannot threaten Iran with political isolation or economic sanctions because America already has in place a comprehensive economic embargo and blackout on communication.” Dobbins adds that “America has refused to negotiate, to offer concessions or to join in multilateral economic and political arrangements that its European allies may negotiate…. [W]hile Europe offers carrots, Washington brandishes no sticks. Given American difficulties in Iraq, a military invasion of Iran is implausible. An aerial attack on known nuclear sites in Iran might slow that country’s weapons program, but only at the cost of accelerated efforts at clandestine sites…. Washington is no more than an excited bystander offering advice from a safe distance.” In conclusion, Dobbins states that: “If blocking Iran’s nuclear weapons aspirations is as urgent as it would seem, then engagement on that issue is imperative. At present, nothing Iran does or fails to do will alter the American posture. This unyielding attitude undercuts the prospects for Europe’s effort to negotiate a positive resolution to the nuclear crisis. It also provides the weakest possible basis for common action in the absence of such a settlement.” [International Herald Tribune, 12/2/2004]

Entity Tags: James Dobbins, RAND Corporation

Category Tags: Geopolitics, Diplomacy, Think Tank Activities

Fox News interviews two retired US military generals and a military expert and asks them to discuss the Bush administration’s military options for dealing with Iran. [Fox News, 4/24/2005] They offer four possible scenarios:
Covert action - The Bush administration could send CIA agents or commandos to sabotage Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Naval blockade - The US could implement a naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz and halt Iranian oil exports.
Surgical strikes - The US could launch cruise missiles at Iran’s nuclear facilities. “e are moving some aircraft carrier groups into the Persian Gulf as we speak,” notes retired Army Major Gen. Paul Vallely. “They will be positioned to launch any aircraft from the Mediterranean Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.” After the cruise missiles, F-117 stealth fighter jets would destroy the country’s radar system and B-2 bombers would drop 5,000-pound laser-guided bunker busters on buried targets like the Natanz enrichment site or the deep tunnels in Isfahan.
All-out assault - An all-out assault involving ground troops, according to the experts interviewed by Fox, would be the least likely scenario.

Entity Tags: Council on Foreign Relations

Category Tags: Predictions, Think Tank Activities

Christopher Brown of the Hudson Institute writes that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is “perhaps the most dangerous organization that the American people have never heard of.” Brown asserts that the SCO’s publicly stated goals, including fighting terrorism, are a sham. He writes that the SCO is the most obvious but most ignored challenge to the US and warns that the potential future inclusion of Iran into the organization could lead to weapons proliferation. He reasons that “since one of the programs of the SCO is the linking of the road systems in the region,” the transportation of dangerous goods between Iran and China would increase dramatically. [FrontPage Magazine, 5/30/2005]

Entity Tags: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Hudson Institute, Christopher Brown

Category Tags: Geopolitics, Neoconservative Hawks, Think Tank Activities

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